Just Win Baby And Youll Probably Make The College Football Playoff

Clemson 9-013667%67%17% Navy 7-1—155419%<1%<1% Oklahoma St. 9-01441337%23%5% TeamCFPEloFPIConf. TitlePlayoffNat. Title Florida State 7-21624170%<1%<1% Toledo 7-12440539%<1%<1% TCU 8-1812310%11%4% Stanford 8-11151152%26%5% Notre Dame 8-1569—30%7% Michigan 7-217201613%6%1% RankingProbability of … Texas A&M 6-3194923<1%<1%<1% UCLA 7-22321186%3%<1% Oklahoma 8-11514119%17%7% Ohio State 9-032544%57%15% Temple 8-122283943%<1%<1% Florida 8-110101438%19%3% LSU 7-129814%15%4% Memphis 8-11331453%<1%<1% Last season’s first-ever College Football Playoff might have miscalibrated everyone’s sense of what it takes to make it to the final four. Six power conference champions or co-champions1Thanks to a dubious decision by the Big 12. — Alabama, Baylor, Florida State, Ohio State, Oregon and TCU — were undefeated or had one loss against reasonably good schedules. There’s plenty of room to critique how the committee went about leaving Baylor and TCU out, but there was no one inherently correct way to slot six fairly equally matched teams into four playoff positions.But a field as crowded and qualified as last year’s was atypical. Most of the time there are a couple of teams that are weak links: a three-loss conference champion here, a one-loss team that played an incredibly weak schedule there. A mess like last year’s isn’t impossible, obviously. But usually the knot will untangle itself through conference championships, rivalry games and upsets that knock teams out late in the season.So don’t despair, Michigan State fans. (Of which I’m one.) Yeah, you probably lost on a bad call last weekend. But you’re still highly likely to make the playoff if your team wins all of its remaining games, in which case you’ll have defeated Ohio State and (probably) Iowa in the Big Ten championship. Pretty much every one-loss team from a power conference is more likely than not to make the playoff if it wins out.And an undefeated power conference team like Oklahoma State shouldn’t fret, even if it is currently outside the committee’s top four. Some of the teams ranked in front of it are almost certain to lose — and even if they don’t, there’s a good chance Oklahoma State will leapfrog some one-loss teams if it keeps winning.Our subjective perceptions of the playoff picture aren’t the only thing that may be miscalibrated, though. The same could be said about the FiveThirtyEight College Football Playoff model. At least, that’s the conclusion we came to when we were conducting research for this article. Although the model seems to give basically reasonable answers, a couple of things left us scratching our heads when we examined it more deeply.For instance, it posited a conspicuously large gap between Iowa’s chance of winning the Big Ten championship (27 percent) and making the playoff (8 percent). Iowa is undefeated, and while it’s possible they could win the Big Ten with one loss or more, the internal calculations in the model also implied that they’d have only about a 55 percent chance of making the playoff even if they ran their record to 13-0. One can see why a computer might come to that conclusion — Iowa has played a pretty bad schedule, and its margin of victory hasn’t been impressive — but human beings are going to vote an undefeated Big Ten champion into the playoff unless almost everything else2For instance, incredibly strong contenders from the other power conferences. is working against them.Readers had some questions for us too. Why was USC, which already has three losses, given any realistic chance by the model (granted, it was just 4 percent) of making the playoff? And why was one-loss Alabama’s chance of making the playoff so much higher than its SEC championship chances? There are some good reasons for that one,3In particular, if both Alabama and Mississippi had won out, Alabama would have lost the tiebreaker in the SEC West and missed the SEC championship game. The model inferred, correctly I think, that a one-loss Alabama team probably would still have made the playoff (perhaps along with a second SEC team) under those circumstances. This became a moot point when Mississippi was spectacularly upset by Arkansas. but even accounting for those, the gap seemed to be too wide and the model seemed to be too optimistic about Alabama still making the playoff if it endured a second loss.The theme here is that human beings pay a lot of attention to wins and losses — more than our computer seemed to be doing. An undefeated power conference team is going to get in except under rare circumstances. Two-loss power conference teams have historically finished in the AP top four more often than you might think, but it’s still a hard road. And a three-loss team making the playoff? Almost impossible unless there’s total carnage everywhere else.Since the whole point of our model is to mimic human intuition, reader feedback made us think it had some blind spots. So we re-examined the historical data4Since the playoff selection committee is only one year old, this also includes the behavior of the coaches’ poll since 2002. and concluded that our model should be placing more weight on plain-vanilla wins and losses. Or at least, it should be doing so for power conference teams (and for Notre Dame); minor conference teams historically haven’t been treated that kindly by either poll voters or the committee. Even if the committee currently ranks a one-loss team ahead of an undefeated team, or a two-loss team ahead of a one-loss team, it may re-examine the case in future weeks, and the team with fewer losses will often get the benefit of the doubt. (For a more technical explanation of how this is implemented in the model, see the footnotes.5One change we introduced earlier to the model is that it reverts the projected committee standings each week toward a team’s Elo rating. Elo ratings are a fairly simple method that often correspond pretty well with human judgment in ranking sports teams. But there’s an even simpler method: a rating based solely on a team’s win-loss record and whether it plays in a power conference. The new version of the model reverts a team’s ranking based on a combination of its Elo rating and its win-loss record, instead of its Elo rating alone.)This relatively simple change has little impact for most teams, but it does affect a couple of the cases that had bothered us (and some of our loyal readers). Iowa’s chances of making the playoff are now 18 percent instead of 8 percent. Alabama’s are 42 percent instead of 54 percent. USC’s are 1 percent6USC has a decent chance of winning the Pac-12 championship, but it would take a perfect storm of circumstances to get them into the playoff even if they did. instead of 4 percent. Here’s how everyone’s odds were affected by the change: Utah 8-112112122%12%2% Mississippi 7-31826109%<1%<1% Northwestern 7-2212961<1%<1%<1% Houston 9-025223633%2%<1% Wisconsin 8-2—17243%<1%<1% But back to football substance. I mentioned before how lots of teams, even if they don’t technically control their own destiny,7No team controls its own destiny, technically, since there are no guaranteed bids in the playoff. are favored to make the playoff if they win the rest of their games. Now that the model is (hopefully) doing a better job of mimicking the emphasis that human voters place on wins and losses, we can be more precise about that. Specifically, the model estimates that 14 teams have a 50 percent or greater likelihood of making the playoff conditional on winning out.The model figures that Michigan State, for instance, has an 86 percent chance of making the playoff if it wins out. Even the lowliest one-loss major conference team, North Carolina, which wasn’t ranked by the committee last week, is about even-money to make the playoff if it wins out. And undefeated Iowa (91 percent) and Oklahoma State (97 percent) are all but assured of making the playoff if they finish the year without a loss, even if the committee doesn’t have them in the top four tonight. Mississippi St. 7-22016153%3%<1% North Carolina 8-1—182030%5%<1% And here’s a new summary table showing the playoff picture heading into tonight, when the playoff committee will release its new rankings at 7 p.m. Undefeated Baylor has moved slightly ahead of one-loss Notre Dame in our forecast, but otherwise the top six are unchanged. USC 6-3—19719%1%<1% Baylor 8-067234%32%12% College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings as of Nov. 3. Michigan St. 8-1782212%10%1% Iowa 9-09132927%18%2% Alabama 8-141435%42%12% So the tough part for teams like Michigan State isn’t sweating the committee’s decision if it wins the Big Ten; it’s getting to that point in the first place. With Ohio State and Iowa still in the way; the Spartans have only an 11 percent chance of running the table. read more

MASKANOO CELEBRATION INCIDENT FREE NOT LINKED TO VIOLENT AFTER PARTIES

first_img Related Items:david bowen, incident free, maskanoo, Wesley Clerveaux Recommended for you New Director for Agriculture vows to create Policy Sundowner Music Festival this week Maskanoo to take over Grace Bay strip Boxing Day Saturday Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsAppProvidenciales, 29 Dec 2014 –No connection whatsoever to the actual Maskanoo parade; opportunists using the brand of the TCI’s Maskanoo hosted an after party where it is believed the problems started and which may have led to the death of a 20 year old man on Saturday around 3am. Magnetic Media is informed by both the Culture Director and the Office of the Premier that they are thrilled to have had a Maskanoo Parade without incident; and saddened by the death of the Blue Hills resident. I quote David Bowen, Culture Director: I was informed that persons were illegally using the name and logo of Maskanoo to promote a party to make money off the success of Maskanoo which officially ended at 12 midnight. Dec 26th. Any event after midnightthat claimed to be Maskanoo related is false and not sanctioned by TCHTA, the Dept of Culture, the Ministry of Culture or the Maskanoo Committee.” In fact Bowen adds: “These persons who organized and promoted the party should be held accountable for both the death of this young man and for the illegal use of the Maskanoo name and logo.” The Premier’s Office supports these sentiments, explaining: “Thankfully the Maskanoo celebrations went off with no incident, however we are saddened by the news that the night did not end completely well, with the news of the unfortunate passing of the young man, but this had no relation to the Maskanoo event and should not be reported in the media to give any an impression that the event was linked in any shape or form to the Maskanoo celebration,” from Permanent Secretary, Wesley Clerveaux. Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsApplast_img read more

Ambassador Cuban Delegation Meet Top Bahamian Businesses at Palm Cay Captains Table

first_img Recommended for you Bi-lateral talks with Bahamas to resume, UK gives green light to high-level TCI delegation Bahamian music legend gunned down at home in Turks and Caicos Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsApp Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsAppNassau, 06 Sept 2015 – The cucumber mojitos were served on linen-draped trays and the white-gloved waiters quietly whisked plates to and fro, but make no mistake about it. The real meat of a recent evening at Palm Cay Club & Marina was serious business as Cuba and The Bahamas began talks about how they could work together to create a dual-destination product to attract a tourist market that is expected to explode as Cuba prepares to open its doors to millions.The event, the first in a series called The Captain’s Table aimed at bringing business and civic leaders together with a noteworthy guest of honour, was held September 2. It was the first day of the Cuban delegation’s visit to The Bahamas and the private setting was designed for exploratory overtures.“We wanted to create an opportunity for business representatives and a few top hoteliers and tour operators to meetwith an impressive delegation from Cuba in an environment that afforded all parties the chance to talk openly about their interests and to see where those interests might overlap,” said organizer Diane Phillips. “The members’ lounge at Palm Cay was perfect. The privacy allowed people to speak freely and to find common ground on which they could work together. As a dual destination, The Bahamas and Cuba will be a winning combination. And the Cuban delegation saw that immediately – it was not an either-or, but a let’s work it out so we can work together to make this happen.”The delegation, led by Cuban Ambassador Ernesto Guzman, included the General Director, and other top-ranking persons from the Ministry of Tourism of Cuba and from Havanatur, along with Yoslaidy Clemente Lopez of the Cuban Embassy in The Bahamas.“The opportunity offered by the Captain’s Table to facilitate the exchange between Cuban and Bahamian business men and companies involved in the tourism industry was unique for both sides,” said the Ambassador. “The evening allowed us to get to know the existing potential in our countries for the development and expansion of an industry that can catapult other areas of interest such as agriculture, health and education among others. I think that the Cuban and Bahamians people will benefit of any project intelligently developed by our countries in an unforeseeable way.”Guests knew in advance that there would be no politicians, no media and no more than 18 at the single table to allow for free flow of conversation and exchange of ideas. According to Palm Cay General Manager Richard Browning, the Captain’s Table concept struck a chord.“We see the Captain’s Table as a great initiative for like-minded business people in The Bahamas to meet in a relaxed environment, an attractive setting that offers intimacy and encourages openness,” said Browning. “This Cuban visit has clearly proven that there is a desire for this type of get together.”Among those at the dinner were Gowon Bowe, Chairman, Bahamas Chamber of Commerce; John Conway, General Manager, One&Only Ocean Club; Ed Fields, Sr Vice President, Atlantis; Paolo Garzaroli, Graycliff (and Historic Charles Towne); Gary Williams, Sandals consultant representing Gordon ‘Butch’ Stewart; Youlanda Deveaux, Regional Vice President, Caribbean and Central America, Mandara Spa Bahamas Ltd, Steiner Resort Division; Simone Morgan-Gomez, Partner, Callenders law firm; Chris Ryan, Chief Financial Officer, NAD; Richard Browning, General Manager, Palm Cay Development, John Gomez, Cable Bahamas, A.J. Saunders, Majestic Tours and the Cuban delegation, including Richard Boadi, Sales Manager, Havanatur Bahamas. Attorney Morgan Gomez, who is bilingual, was among several who spoke Spanish. “One of the things that made the evening so magical was the openness,” said Ms. Deveaux. “I know for our part we are very interested in exploring the luxury spa experience in Cuba. There were hoteliers who were quite frank about being interested in putting their brand in Cuba as soon as they reasonably can. Just about everyone present saw opportunities not only for them to invest in what will be the new hotspot for Caribbean tourism because it has been off limits to Americans for so long, but to work with key players in Cuba to present a marketing strategy that will appeal to those who think a trip to both places is a better choice than a visit to either one on its own.”Palm Cay is a nearly 70-acre development on New Providence’s southeastern coast and includes an array of single family residences, townhomes and condominiums along with the island’s largest marina in terms of boat slips, a multi-storey restaurant and clubhouse with members’ lounge, swimming pools, tennis and 1,200 feet of pristine white sand beach. Related Items:bahamas, cuba, cuban ambassador, palm cay, the captain’s table Hurricane Jose Not A Threat to The Bahamas, For Nowlast_img read more

1220AM SEVER THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ABACO TUESDAY 03RD OCTOBER 2017

first_imgFacebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsApp#Bahamas, October 3, 2017 – Nassau – THE BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FROM 12:20AM EDT UNTIL 5:20AM TUESDAY 03RD OCTOBER 2017.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ABACO AND ITS ADJACENT WATERS.AT 12:13AM OBSERVATION, RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS ABACO.SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE AT TIMES CAUSING STRONG GUSTY WINDS, DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, HAIL AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUT OR TORNADIC ACTIVITY.BOATERS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOUR AND RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS WHEN CONDITIONS WORSEN. RESIDENTS SHOULD NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES OR IN WATER AS THESE CAN BECOME LIGHTNING CONDUCTORSISSUED BY DUTY FORECASTER: IAN V. MCKENZIEISSUED: 03/10/2017 AT 12:20AM(0420UTC) Related Items: Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsApplast_img read more

Wolves wont park bus against Spurs – Nuno

first_imgNuno Espirito Santo says he will not change Wolves’ style of play in order to stop Tottenham Hotspur from scoring on Saturday.Nuno will travel with his team to Wembley on Saturday to face a free-scoring Tottenham side that has netted 11 goals in their last two Premier League games.Wolves have been known to play free-flowing football this season, and Nuno vows to continue the same against Spurs.“We’ve played already many games against top teams where we have shown that we don’t change our identity,” Nuno told Sky Sports.“We are trying to build something, so when you try to build you do not look at the game like, ‘What is the best way to get a result?’ No, it’s what is the best way for you to compete against these teams?Tammy Abraham, ChelseaChelsea hat-trick hero Tammy Abraham hopes for more Andrew Smyth – September 14, 2019 Tammy Abraham hopes this season will be his big breakthrough at Chelsea after firing his first hat-trick for the club in Saturday’s 5-2 win at Wolves.“If you have to defend and have less of the ball it does not mean that you are not trying to win the game.“We’ve shown in previous games that we attack, we have shots on goals against heavy teams, even so, the building process goes this way so the way we approach against Tottenham is going to be the same.“We’re going to look at Tottenham and see the best we can do in the game.”last_img read more